There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

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Two years ago, the yield curve inverted, meaning short-term interest rates on treasury bonds were unusually higher than long term rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has come. A key ...

After a little over two years, the yield curve is back to normal. That is to say, interest rates on longer-term bonds are once again higher than the interest rates of shorter-term bonds like two-year ...

The longest inverted yield curve on record may finally be in the rearview mirror. The yield on the 2-year note closed at 3.651%, according to Tradeweb, lower than the 10-year yield, which settled at 3 ...

Returns on bonds are finally normalizing. Back in mid-2022, the 2-year yield surpassed the 10-year, creating an anomaly known as the inverted yield curve. Normally, longer-term debt should yield more ...

Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes slid below those on two-year notes on Wednesday, delivering a reliable recession signal and sending shudders through global financial markets. Other sections of ...

A key indicator of a recession flashed a warning light two years ago. That metric once had a perfect record, but there hasn't been a crash yet. Our colleagues at The Indicator From Planet Money, ...